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We did not see meaningful differences in interpretation across age groups or between native and nonnative English speakers, with one exception: the phrase “slam dunk.” On average, the native English speakers interpreted the phrase as indicating a 93% probability, whereas the nonnative speakers put the figure at 81%. This result offers a warning to avoid culturally biased phrases in general and sports metaphors in particular when you’re trying to be clear.

For matters of importance where mutual understanding is vital, avoid nonnumerical words or phrases and turn directly to probabilities .

Lesson 2: Use structured approaches to set probabilities.

As discussed, one reason people use ambiguous words instead of precise probabilities is to reduce the risk of being wrong. But people also hedge with words because they are not familiar with structured ways to set probabilities.

A large literature shows that we tend to be overconfident in our judgments. For example, in another survey we asked respondents to answer 50 true or false questions (for example, “The earth’s distance from the sun is constant throughout the year”) and to estimate their confidence. More than 11,000 people participated. The results show that the average confidence in answering correctly was 70%, while the average number of questions answered correctly was just 60%. Our respondents were overconfident by 10 percentage points, a finding that is common in psychology research .

Studies of probabilistic forecasts in the intelligence community stand in contrast. More-experienced analysts are generally well calibrated , which means that over a large number of predictions, their subjective guesses about probabilities and the objective outcomes (what actually occurs) align well. Indeed, when calibration is off, it is often the result of underconfidence.

How do you set probabilities intelligently?

When the odds are ambiguous, unlike in a simple gambling situation (where there’s a 50% chance of heads or tails), you are dealing with what decision theorists call subjective probabilities . These do not purport to be the correct probability, but do reflect an individual’s personal beliefs about the outcome. You should update your subjective probability estimates each time you get relevant information.

One way to pin down your subjective probability is to compare your estimatewith a concrete bet. Let’s say that a competitor is expected to launch a new offering next quarter that threatens to disrupt your most profitable product. You are trying to assess the probability that the introduction doesn’t happen. The way to frame your bet might be: “If the product fails to launch, I receive $1 million, but if it does launch, I get nothing.”

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Two of the best players in the state of Oklahoma — and two of the Cowboys’ top targets — have set dates for when they’ll officially announce their college commitments.

Both four-star wide receiver Demariyon Houston and three-star defensive end Collin Clay announced their commitment dates on Twitter this weekend. First up was Demariyon Houston , the second-highest ranked player in the state of Oklahoma, who set a commitment date of July 7.

The Oklahoma City prospect narrowed his list down to seven teams nearly a month ago. Joining Oklahoma State in the running are Texas,Alabama, Auburn, Oregon, Minnesota and Ole Miss.

According to 247Sports experts, Oklahoma State is the favorite to land Houston, with Texas also strongly in the running.

In previous interviews, Houston and his mother have both had good things to say about Oklahoma State. “It was great, I love it, love it. It is like my house,” The Boho Grind Crossbody Bag in Light Slate Cow Leather Marc Jacobs bUYguqZE
about Stillwater after a visit earlier this year.

Oklahoma State is only guaranteed to lose one wide receiver after the 2018 season with senior Jalen McClesky’s eligibility expiring at the end of the season. There are always possibilities of players leaving early (Tyron Johnson namely), but that means the Cowboys will likely only be looking to add one or two receivers at most. That makes Houston a target for the Cowboys, and one I think they have a good chance of landing.

With all the talk about the Cowboys not being able land four- and five-star recruits, getting an in-state guy like Houston to commit to OSU would be a win on multiple levels for Gundy and Co.

The other name to keep an eye on is the fifth-ranked player in Oklahoma, defensive end Collin Clay, who has set a commitment date for September 21 after Putnam City’s homecoming game.

Clay narrowed his list of 21 offers down to five roughly a month ago, including Oklahoma State, Arkansas, TCU, Georgia, and Oregon.

According to 247Sports, Arkansas is the overwhelming favorite to land Clay, but it would still be disappointing to see a guy ranked that highly to go out of state.

While OSU already has two DEs committed for 2019 in Isreal Isuman-Hundley and Kody Walterscheid, Clay is one of the Cowboy’s top targets. The coachingstaff has been in constant communication for well over a year after extending one of his first Division I scholarship offers back in May of 2017.

With his commitment not coming until September, the Cowboys still have plenty of time to continue their efforts to sway him to orange and black come this fall.

With Grayson Boomer and Demarco Jones — two of the top 10 players in Oklahoma — already committed to play for OSU, adding two top five in-state players would be huge for the Cowboys and coaching staff. We’ll be watching with anticipation for both of these players’ commitments. In the meantime, here are the top 10 players in Oklahoma for next year’s recruiting cycle, according to 247.

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